Question 1

Carl Cramer is a recent hire at Derivatives Specialists Inc. (DSI), a small consulting firm that advises a variety

of institutions on the management of credit risk. Some of DSI's clients are very familiar with risk management

techniques whereas others are not. Cramer has been assigned the task of creating a handbook on credit risk,

its possible impact, and its management. His immediate supervisor, Christine McNally, will assist Cramer in the

creation of the handbook and will review it. Before she took a position at DSI, McNally advised banks and other

institutions on the use of value-at-risk (VAR) as well as credit-at-risk (CAR).

Cramer's first task is to address the basic dimensions of credit risk. He states that the first dimension of credit

risk is the probability of an event that will cause a loss. The second dimension of credit risk is the amount lost,

which is a function of the dollar amount recovered when a loss event occurs. Cramer recalls the considerable

difficulty he faced when transacting with Johnson Associates, a firm which defaulted on a contract with the

Grich Company. Grich forced Johnson Associates into bankruptcy and Johnson Associates was declared in

default of all its agreements. Unfortunately, DSI then had to wait until the bankruptcy court decided on all claims

before it could settle the agreement with Johnson Associates.

McNally mentions that Cramer should include a statement about the time dimension of credit risk. She states

that the two primary time dimensions of credit risk are current and future. Current credit risk relates to the

possibility of default on current obligations, while future credit risk relates to potential default on future

obligations. If a borrower defaults and claims bankruptcy, a creditor can file claims representing the face value

of current obligations and the present value of future obligations. Cramer adds that combining current and

potential credit risk analysis provides the firm's total credit risk exposure and that current credit risk is usually a

reliable predictor of a borrower's potential credit risk.

As DSI has clients with a variety of forward contracts, Cramer then addresses the credit risks associated with

forward agreements. Cramer states that long forward contracts gain in value when the market price of the

underlying increases above the contract price. McNally encourages Cramer to include an example of credit risk

and forward contracts in the handbook. She offers the following:

A forward contract sold by Palmer Securities has six months until the delivery date and a contract price of 50.

The underlying asset has no cash flows or storage costs and is currently priced at 50. In the contract, no funds

were exchanged upfront.

Cramer also describes how a client firm of DSI can control the credit risks in their derivatives transactions. He

writes that firms can make use of netting arrangements, create a special purpose vehicle, require collateral

from counterparties, and require a mark-to-market provision. McNally adds that Cramer should include a

discussion of some newer forms of credit protection in his handbook. McNally thinks credit derivatives

represent an opportunity for DSL She believes that one type of credit derivative that should figure prominently in

their handbook is total return swaps. She asserts that to purchase protection through a total return swap, the

holder of a credit asset will agree to pass the total return on the asset to the protection seller (e.g., a swap

dealer) in exchange for a single, fixed payment representing the discounted present value of expected cash

flows from the asset.

A DSI client, Weaver Trading, has a bond that they are concerned will increase in credit risk. Weaver would like

protection against this event in the form of a payment if the bond's yield spread increases beyond LIBOR plus

3%. Weaver Trading prefers a cash settlement.

Later that week, Cramer and McNally visit a client's headquarters and discuss the potential hedge of a bond

issued by Cuellar Motors. Cuellar manufactures and markets specialty luxury motorcycles. The client is

considering hedging the bond using a credit spread forward, because he is concerned that a downturn in the

economy could result in a default on the Cuellar bond. The client holds $2,000,000 in par of the Cuellar bond

and the bond's coupons are paid annually. The bond's current spread over the U.S. Treasury rate is 2.5%. The

characteristics of the forward contract are shown below.

Information on the Credit Spread Forward

Regarding their statements concerning current and future credit risk, determine whether Cramer and McNally

are correct or incorrect.

Options :

A : Only Cramer is correct.

B : Only McNally is correct.

C : Both are correct -OR- both are incorrect.

Answer: B

Question 2

Dakota Watson and Anthony Smith are bond portfolio managers for Northern Capital Investment Advisors,

which is based in the U.S. Northern Capital has $2,000 million under management, with S950 million of that in

the bond market. Northern Capital's clients are primarily institutional investors such as insurance companies,

foundations, and endowments. Because most clients insist on a margin over the relevant bond benchmark,

Watson and Smith actively manage their bond portfolios, while at the same time trying to minimize tracking

error.

One of the funds that Northern Capital offers invests in emerging market bonds. An excerpt from its prospectus

reveals the following fund objectives and strategies:

“The fund generates a return by constructing a portfolio using all major fixed-income sectors within the Asian

region (except Japan) with a bias towards non-government bonds. The fund makes opportunistic investments

in both investment grade and high yield bonds. Northern Capital analysts seek those bond issues that are

expected to outperform U.S. bonds with similar credit risk, interest rate risk, and liquidity risk-Value is added by

finding those bonds that have been overlooked by other developed world bond funds. The fund favors nondollar, local currency denominated securities to avoid the default risk associated with a lack of hard currency on

the part of issuer."

Although Northern Capital does examine the availability of excess returns in foreign markets by investing

outside the index in these markets, most of its strategies focus on U.S. bonds and spread analysis of them.

Discussing the analysis of spreads in the U.S. bond market, Watson comments on the usefulness of the option

adjusted spread and the swap spread and makes the following statements:

Statement 1: Due to changes in the structure of the primary bond market in the U.S., the option adjusted

spread is increasingly valuable for analyzing the attractiveness of bond investments.

Statement 2: The advantage of the swap spread framework is that investors can compare the relative

attractiveness of fixed-rate and floating-rate bond markets.

Watson's view of the U.S. economy is decidedly bearish. She is concerned that the recent withdrawal of liquidity

from the U.S. financial system will result in a U.S. recession, possibly even a depression. She forecasts that

interest rates in the U.S. will continue to fall as the demand for loanable funds declines with the lack of business

investment. Meanwhile, she believes that the Federal Reserve will continue to keep short-term rates low in

order to stimulate the economy. Although she sees the level of yields declining, she believes that the spread on

risky securities will increase due to the decline in business prospects. She therefore has reallocated her bond

portfolio away from high-yield bonds and towards investment grade bonds.

Smith is less decided about the economy. However, his trading strategy has been quite successful in the past.

As an example of his strategy, he recently sold a 20-year AA-rated $50,000 Mahan Corporation bond with a

7.75% coupon that he had purchased at par. With the proceeds, he then bought a newly issued A-rated Quincy

Corporation bond that offered an 8.25% coupon. By swapping the first bond for the second bond, he enhanced

his annual income, which he considers quite favorable given the declining yields in the market.

Watson has become quite interested in the mortgage market. With the anticipated decline in interest rates, she

expects that the yields on mortgages will decline. As a result, she has reallocated the portion of Northern

Capital's bond portfolio dedicated to mortgages. She has shifted the holdings from 8.50% coupon mortgages to

7.75% coupon mortgages, reasoning that if interest rates do drop, the lower coupon mortgages will rise in price

more than the higher coupon mortgages. She identifies this trade as a structure trade.

Smith is examining the liquidity of three bonds. Their characteristics are listed in the table below:

Which of the following best describes the relative value analysis used in the Northern Capita! Emerging market

bond fund? It is a:

Options :

A : top-down approach.

B : bottom-up approach.

C : combination of a top-down approach and a bottom-up approach.

Answer: B

Question 3

Mark Rolle, CFA, is the manager of the international bond fund for the Ryder Investment Advisory. He is

responsible for bond selection as well as currency hedging decisions. His assistant is Joanne Chen, a

candidate for the Level 1 CFA exam.

Rolle is interested in the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates for Canada and Great Britain.

He observes that the spot exchange rate between the Canadian dollar (C$) and the British pound is C$1.75/£.

Also, the 1-year interest rate in Canada is 4.0% and the 1-year interest rate in Great Britain is 11.0%. The

current 1-year forward rate is C$1.60/£.

Rolle is evaluating the bonds from the Knauff company and the Tatehiki company, for which information is

provided in the table below. The Knauff company bond is denominated in euros and the Tatehiki company bond

is denominated in yen. The bonds have similar risk and maturities, and Ryder's investors reside in the United

States.

Provided this information, Rolle must decide which country's bonds are most attractive if a forward hedge of

currency exposure is used. Furthermore, assuming that both country's bonds are bought, Rolle must also

decide whether or not to hedge the currency exposure.

Rolle also has a position in a bond issued in Korea and denominated in Korean won. Unfortunately, he is having

difficulty obtaining a forward contract for the won on favorable terms. As an alternative hedge, he has entered a

forward contract that allows him to sell yen in one year, when he anticipates liquidating his Korean bond. His

reason for choosing the yen is that it is positively correlated with the won.

One of Ryder's services is to provide consulting advice to firms that are interested in interest rate hedging

strategies. One such firm is Crawfordville Bank. One of the loans Crawfordville has outstanding has an interest

rate of LIBOR plus a spread of 1.5%. The chief financial officer at Crawfordville is worried that interest rates

may increase and would like to hedge this exposure. Rolle is contemplating either an interest rate cap or an

interest rate floor as a hedge.

Additionally, Rolle is analyzing the best hedge for Ryder's portfolio of fixed rate coupon bonds. Rolle is

contemplating using either a covered call or a protective put on a T-bond futures contract.

The hedge that Rolle uses to hedge the currency exposure of the Korean bond is best referred to as a:

Options :

A : proxy hedge.

B : cross hedge.

C : forward hedge.

Answer: A

Question 4

Walter Skinner, CFA, manages a bond portfolio for Director Securities. The bond portfolio is part of a pension

plan trust set up to benefit retirees of Thomas Steel Inc. As part of the investment policy governing the plan and

the bond portfolio, no foreign securities are to be held in the portfolio at any time and no bonds with a credit

rating below investment grade are allowable for the bond portfolio. In addition, the bond portfolio must remain

unleveraged. The bond portfolio is currently valued at $800 million and has a duration of 6.50. Skinner believes

that interest rates are going to increase, so he wants to lower his portfolio's duration to 4.50. He has decided to

achieve the reduction in duration by using swap contracts. He has two possible swaps to choose from:

1. Swap A: 4-year swap with quarterly payments.

2. Swap B: 5-year swap with semiannual payments.

Skinner plans to be the fixed-rate payer in the swap, receiving a floating-rate payment in exchange. For

analysis, Skinner always assumes the duration of a fixed rate bond is 75% of its term to maturity.

Several years ago, Skinner decided to circumvent the policy restrictions on foreign securities by purchasing a

dual currency bond issued by an American holding company with significant operations in Japan. The bond

makes semiannual fixed interest payments in Japanese yen but will make the final principal payment in U.S.

dollars five years from now. Skinner originally purchased the bond to take advantage of the strengthening

relative position of the yen. The result was an above average return for the bond portfolio for several years.

Now, however, he is concerned that the yen is going to begin a weakening trend, as he expects inflation in the

Japanese economy to accelerate over the next few years. Knowing Skinner's situation, one of his colleagues,

Bill Michaels, suggests the following strategy:

"You need to offset your exposure to the Japanese yen by establishing a short position in a synthetic dual

currency bond that matches the terms of the dual currency bond you purchased for the Thomas Steel bond

portfolio. As part of the strategy, you will have to enter into a currency swap as the fixed-rate yen payer. The

swap will neutralize the dual-currency bond position but will unfortunately increase the credit risk exposure of

the portfolio."

Skinner has also spoken to Orval Mann, the senior economist with Director Securities, about his expectations

for the bond portfolio. Mann has also provided some advice to Skinner in the following comment:

"1 know you expect a general increase in interest rates, but I disagree with your assessment of the interest rate

shift. I believe interest rates are going to decrease. Therefore, you will want to synthetically remove the call

features of any callable bonds in your portfolio by purchasing a payer interest rate swaption."

After his lung conversation with Director Securities' senior economist, Orval Mann, Skinner has completely

changed his outlook on interest rates and has decided to extend the duration of his portfolio. The most

appropriate strategy to accomplish this objective using swaps would be to enter into a swap to pay:

Options :

A :

fixed and receive floating.

B : floating and receive fixed.

C : floating and receive floating.

Answer: B

Question 5

Milson Investment Advisors (MIA) specializes in managing fixed income portfolios for institutional clients. Many

of MIA's clients are able to take on substantial portfolio risk and therefore the firm's funds invest in all credit

qualities and in international markets. Among its investments, MIA currently holds positions in the debt of Worth

inc., Enertech Company, and SBK Company.

Worth Inc. is a heavy equipment manufacturer in Germany. The company finances a significant amount of its

fixed assets using bonds. Worth's current debt outstanding is in the form of non-callable bonds issued two

years ago at a coupon rate of 7.2% and a maturity of 15 years. Worth expects German interest rates to decline

by as much as 200 basis points (bps) over the next year and would like to take advantage of the decline. The

company has decided to enter into a 2-year interest rate swap with semiannual payments, a swap rate of 5.8%,

and a floating rate based on 6-month EURIBOR. The duration of the fixed side of the swap is 1.2. Analysts at

MIA have made the following comments regarding Worth's swap plan:

• "The duration of the swap from the perspective of Worth is 0.95."

• "By entering into the swap, the duration of Worth's long-term liabilities will become smaller, causing the value

of the firm's equity to become more sensitive to changes in interest rates."

Enertech Company is a U.S.-based provider of electricity and natural gas. The company uses a large proportion

of floating rate notes to finance its operations. The current interest rate on Enertech's floating rate notes, based

on 6-month LIBOR plus 150bp, is 5.5%. To hedge its interest rate risk, Enertech has decided to enter into a

long interest rate collar. The cap and the floor of the collar have maturities of two years, with settlement dates

(in arrears) every six months. The strike rate for the cap is 5.5% and for the floor is 4.5%, based on 6-month

LIBOR, which is forecast to be 5.2%, 6.1%, 4.1%, and 3.8%, in 6,12, 18, and 24 months, respectively. Each

settlement period consists of 180 days. Analysts at MIA are interested in assessing the attributes of the collar.

SBK Company builds oil tankers and other large ships in Norway. The firm has several long-term bond issues

outstanding with fixed interest rates ranging from 5.0% to 7.5% and maturities ranging from 5 to 12 years.

Several years ago, SBK took the pay floating side of a semi-annual settlement swap with a rate of 6.0%, a

floating rate based on LIBOR, and a tenor of eight years. The firm now believes interest rates may increase in 6

months, but is not 100% confident in this assumption. To hedge the risk of an interest rate increase, given its

interest rate uncertainty, the firm has sold a payer interest rate swaption with a maturity of 6 months, an

underlying swap rate of 6.0%, and a floating rate based on LIBOR.

MIA is considering investing in the debt of Rio Corp, a Brazilian energy company. The investment would be in

Rio's floating rate notes, currently paying a coupon of 8.0%. MIA's economists are forecasting an interest rate

decline in Brazil over the short term.

Determine whether the MIA analysts' comments regarding the duration of the Worth Inc. swap and the effects

of the swap on the company's balance sheet are correct or incorrect.

Options :

A :

Only the comment regarding the swap duration is correct.

B :

Only the comment regarding the swap balance sheet effects is correct.

C : Both comments are correct.

Answer: C